The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month. Beef production is forecast down as lower expected fed cattle and bull slaughter more than offset greater cow slaughter. The pork production forecast is raised as the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slightly higher-than- expected first-quarter pig crop and a smaller decline in the number of sows which farrowed or are expected to farrow in the first half of the year. Hog carcass weights are also raised as feed prices are forecast lower. The broiler production forecast is lowered for the first quarter based on production data to date, but subsequent quarters are unchanged. Turkey production is forecast lower as the turkey price forecast is reduced and hatchery data points to a slowdown in poult placements. The egg production forecast is lowered, reflecting recent hatchery data.
The beef export forecast for 2013 is lowered, reflecting the pace of trade in the first quarter. Beef imports are raised on larger expected supplies in Oceania. Pork exports are cut as exports to a number of markets are relatively slow. The broiler export forecast is reduced from last month on expected higher prices.
Cattle prices are unchanged from last month. Hog prices are lowered as greater inventories and weaker forecast exports are expected to pressure prices. Broiler prices are raised on robust current prices and demand. Turkey price forecasts are lowered as demand has been weaker-than-expected. The egg price forecast is raised on stronger-than-expected first quarter prices.
The milk production forecast for 2013 is reduced on lower milk per cow in the first quarter. Cow numbers are unchanged from last month. Fat-basis imports are reduced mostly on lower imports of anhydrous products. The skim solids import forecast is reduced largely on lower expected imports of milk protein concentrates. Export forecasts are unchanged from last month. Fat-basis ending stocks are forecast higher, but skim-basis stocks are lowered.
With slightly lower forecast 2013 milk production and improved domestic product demand, price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are raised. As a result, both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are higher than last month. The overall milk price for 2013 is higher at $19.45-$19.95 per cwt.